He explained the fall of the Russian economy in march 2022. He explains things incorrectly quite clearly. He is on point here, but without explaining “who printed” and “why they printed”. His buddy Biden printed and they printed for Covid and funding Ukraine. In a nutshell, the fall of the US economy is because of Fauci’s Covid and Biden’s Ukraine war. Two situations that were completely avoidable. This highlights just how arrogant US leaders are. And the ones behind all the decisions in the US are Steins
I really appreciate this bond lesson. I saw a video where the Fox News host look directly into the screen and told everyone that we didn't understand what a bond was. What he was really trying to tell everyone was to shut up. So this is much appreciated. I don't own any bonds but now I know what they are.
If you’ve got any pension entitlements that are being managed by a private entity, there are probably bonds in the mix of investments they’ve made on your behalf.
I agree with the other reply. Especially if you have an age based fund. It would include a mix of less risky stocks, and bonds and possibly real estate. It’s considered a balanced fund. Less growth but less downside.
Housing crisis, health crisis, cost of living crisis, debt crisis, inflation crisis, EU war crisis, middle East crisis, bank crisis, retirement crisis. How many crises can a koala bear?
I was just thinking the same... I'm approaching retirement with comfortable millions, yet scared of leaving my savings in the bank, pondering if I should just buy gold to preserve and grow my money
gold to me is an inflation hedge for long term, but not quite profitable in the short run, you can get more insights or guidance from financial advisors
Straight up! investing with the help of an advisor set me up for life, retired as a millionaire at 55. I worked hard everyday as a teacher for 32 years, and my salary was over 100k annually. However, if it wasn't for covid-19 lockdown, I wouldn't have supplemented my income with stocks and alternative investments.
bravo! I've worked in real estate for over 25 years and have neglected a major stock portfolio, but I need a different plan now... mind if I look up the professional guiding you please?
I have a female advisor named Kelley Annette Lewis . I recommend researching her. To be very honest, I'm glad I decided to let someone handle expanding my finances even though I almost didn't think I should.
I remember the events with Greece. If US bonds are no longer attractive, the US will have to raise interest rates, which will cost them dearly. And it will make it more difficult to raise capital if they lose confidence on the international market. Most US citizens are taking it very casually; they don't understand the long-term consequences. They don't get it, they think everything will be fine, we are the US. btw, the FED belongs to a group of private banks
Unlike Greece, the US Federal Reserve could purchase all the US debt. The Federal Reserve owns approximately $5 trillion of U.S. debt. The interest earned by the Fed is refunded to the Treasury so it lowers the cost of the debt.
@Ezekiel903 It is both public and private. You should Google it for the details if you are interested. The rise in interest rates only affects new debt sold in the market so it takes a number of years to make an impact and the $9T held by the government is also interest free. A recession would lower interest rates and a devaluation of the US dollar would help US exports. Btw, I'm not trying to defend the orange turd clown president that should be sitting in jail.
@@Dave2170 they would never do that, even 5T$ is too much. The Fed has private shareholders, unlike any other central bank. Shareholders include Rockefeller and other financial giants. They would never allow it
If the price of a stock declines by 50 per cent, it must rise by 100 per cent to get back to its old price. The power of compounding works great when everything is going up in price, [your money doubles every 7.2 years when it can earn an interest rate of 10%] but when prices fall you have a real problem recovering your losses.
@ thanks. Yeah sad part is it’s easier to lose than win when you really think about it. That’s another reason I hate it when people talk about what the market returns “on average”. It’s super misleading or at the minimum gives an incomplete impression
@@MaxTSanchesWrong. It's just basic math; there's no difference whatsoever to make it "business math". 100 * .5 = 50. 50 * 2 = 100. 100 declines by 50% of 100 to equal 50. 50 rises by 100% of 50 to equal 100.
The UK can't exactly afford to hold all that US debt, given how it's impoverished itself with Brexit and the only cure for that is British reentry which the UK political class won't even consider. The sooner UK politicians realize that the UK's lot is with the EU and no longer with the United States the better.
@@EdwardM-t8p Starmer is still spending our taxes on the US proxy war in Ukraine. He is slow to realise that the war is over and the US is going to make a massive long term profit out of minerals and rare earths. The US has the last laugh. I don't agree with rejoining the EU. The last 20 years we were in the EU we lost money every year and covered up our failure to make a fiscal surplus with borrowing. We could not afford to stay in and rejoining is not going to be the land of milk and honey you are promising
It is so much worse than presented here. Half of most pension funds are in us securities. Including uk teachers pension. The health services. Etc. Half of all invested savings world wide are tied to us bonds and stocks.
In 2025, the US government must refinance $9.2 trillion of maturing debt. In 2024, the US fiscal revenue is $4.9 trillion, and the expenditure is $7 trillion, with a fiscal loss of about $2 trillion a year. Of this, about $6.5 trillion will mature in June, so at least $8 trillion must be raised before June to repay the principal and interest. This year, the United States will have to issue at least $12 trillion in US debt to repay old debts and interest. In 2024, Germany, the third largest GDP in the world, will have $5 trillion. Even if Germany does not eat or drink for two years, it will not be enough to lend the United States $12 trillion
You don't understand near as much as you think you do. People go to college for 12 years to get a doctorate in economics and they still don't understand economics.
Joe does explain it better than most but he still makes it too complicated. A bond is a loan, simple as that. They use different words, "coupon" instead of "interest" and "mature" instead of "expire" but that's just to confuse people. It's the same as if you go to a bank and borrow some money from them. Except for two fairly minor differences. One is that there are no installments. You pay back the whole loan when it expires... I mean "matures". Before that you only pay the interest ... I mean "coupons". The other is that rather than go to one bank and ask for a loan, you go to the open market and ask if anybody want to lend you the money.
Its fair to say a LOT of trust in the US and US markets has been lost in the last few weeks, I think this is the tip of the iceberg, the real damage will be seen progressively over the next year or two.
Thanks for the concise and clear explanation Joe, it's the first time I understand what everyone's on about when they panic over bond yield rising. It's such a backhanded way of saying people are selling bonds at a discount.
Does that really means we have to rush into but buying of the mentioned stock to level up our stock growth by a greater percentage or are we to seek adviser from a professional…because i don’t know where the stock market is actually heading to in this recent time
Find quality stocks that have long term potential, and ride with those stocks. I have found it takes someone who is very familiar with the market to make such good picks
I agree with you. I started out with investing on my own, but I lost a lot of money. I was able to pull out about $200k after the 2020 crash. I invested the money using an analyst, and in seven months, I raked in almost $673,000
Rebecca Lynne Buie is the licensed advisor I use and i'm just putting this out here because you asked. You can Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up immediately. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her.
The Chinese trade minister said that China was not going to raise above 125%. 125% tariff prices American goods out of the market, anything higher would just be for show.
@gerrycastlemanwarde5933stop it China is as much of a problem as the USA China has been manipulating markets and flooding country’s with underpriced goods destroying domestic markets they are not the good guys
That's not true, a lot of Chinese buy American milk powder and baby formula because it's safe, unlike Chinese milk powder that contains random chemicals specially designed to trick the machinery that tests the milk powder for nutritional content to give false readings. The price doesn't matter. Not to mention the risks of having Melanin in China made milk powder and white rabbit candy given to children. Chinese people actually care about their childrens health but the Chinese food companies only care about their profits and a lot of them have fake nutrition labels and everybody in China knows it. The Chinese Communist Party is easily bribed to look the other way. So Chinese people will continue to buy foreign products they know are safe to consume at any price point over their own locally processed foods, especially when babies and their children are concerned.
A country with a huge economy based on consumption and heavily in debt, should not piss off its creditors. It's like an alcoholic picking a fight with the liquor shop owner. It won't end well.
Good observation although I suppose the alcoholic(s) contribute to the owners profits so perhaps they need each other to some extent, a marriage made in hell ?
I read an article that stated the Canadian priminister went to Europe and got together with them and arranged a slow bleed of US bonds if they implemented tariff s.
Makes sense to me…problem is those in charge in the U.S. have no clue. I would bet money this is being ignored…heard another channel mention this is what China could do easily and really hurt the U.S. but again, apparently ignorance is truly bliss. 😢
Yes, Carney is an extremely clever man. British people ought to have listened to him when he said Brexit wasn’t a good idea economically. Japan certainly dropped a whole shedload of US bonds into the market not long before Trump changed his mind on the wider-world “Liberation Day” tariffs, though I’m not entirely sure whether this was part of the Carney strategy or not. Japan is very risk-averse, and they may just be wishing to hedge against further madness by exchanging part of their US bond holdings for bonds from more reliable countries.
Carney is playing chess and got Germany, France, Italy, UK and Japan to buy US bonds as leverage on tarriffs. Toddler trump is playing cards just happens it was 'snap' which is the true measure his business accumen!
True, nothing beats expertise! Since 2020 pandemic, I’ve built a portfolio made up of 15% NVDA, 20% APPL, 15% SCHD, 15% VOO, and the rest in digital currency. I and my advisor are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal and I'm just about 25% shy from it.
Sure i don't mind. I've stuck with ‘’ JULIA HOPE MARBLE " for years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look her up.
Recessions are an unavoidable part of the economic cycle; all you can do is prepare for them and plan accordingly. I graduated into a slump (2009). My first job after graduating from college was as an aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Today, I work as a VP for a global corporation, own three rental properties, invest in stocks and businesses, run my own company, and have increased my net worth by $500k in the last four years.
Investors should exercise caution with their exposure and exercise caution when considering new investments, particularly during periods of crash. It is advisable to seek guidance from a professional or trusted advisor in order to navigate this recession and achieve potential high yields.
I've been in touch with a financial advisor ever since I started my business. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders.
Finding financial advisors like ''Elizabeth Catharine cremin''' who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
I just looked her up on the internet and found her webpage with her credentials. I wrote her a outlining my financial objectives and planned a call with her.
I had problem comprehending trading in general. I tried watching other RUclips trading channels, but they made the concepts more complicated. I was almost giving up until when i discovered content and explain everything in detail. The videos are easy to follow
I've been making a lot of looses trying to make profit trading. I thought trading on a demo account is just like trading the real market. Can anyone help me out or at least advise me on what to do?
Trading on a demo account can definitely feel similar to the real market, but there are some differences. It's important to remember that trading involves risks and it's normal to face looses sometimes. One piece of advice is to start small and gradually increase your investments as you gain more experience and confidence. It might also be helpful to seek guidance from experienced traders or do some research on different trading strategies
I am not sure that many Americans realise what the loss of the USD as the world's reserve currency will do to the US. This alone is worth trillions, and yet they bleat on about "How unfair" the current system is.
To be fair the yanks, I don't think a lot of people have a clue how much large parts of the world have used the dollar to keep their own economy stable. If the dollar goes, it will affect every economy out there both directly and indirectly.
The bretton woods agreement aka the old system basically was America bribing other countries to stand with them against the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union is gone and other countries are sticking up for China over America why the fuck would America keep the old system? No I am not kidding why?
It's the consequence of Dollar as world reserve. Trump chief economic advisor knows this danger and brief him about the cost of US umbrella. And i think Ray Dalio gave a hint about this also and about "unprecedented and historical" moves will be made by Trump. So, a few economist advise Trump to make big economy decisions. But i think sadly, those advisors made excellent diagnosis but gave poison as remedies.
i never thought of it but the fact is that the tariffs have increased each time i have heard about them being 125% and 104% and previously they were also increased!
Joe, I love your "now here's something to put a smile on your face", especially today because you presented those totally adorable 🥰 calico squirrels! 🐿️🐿️
Great video, very informative. The US economy is now in a very precarious position and financial ruin could soon be on the way. If the US dollar begins to devalue, which it is doing, and bond holders start to believe that the dollar will devalue even further, bond holders and potential bond buyers will see that their US bond yields will be largely or completely offset by the drop in value of the currency (USD) underlying those bonds. That will then cause a lot more of the bond holders to try to get out of holding US dollar based debt instruments and will further reduce demand for US bonds and T-Bills, etc. This will, in turn, drive the value of the USD down even further and the whole thing becomes a snowball effect. More selloff of US dollar backed debt instruments leads to lower USD leading to even more selloff of USD debt and so on. If this snowball begins to run away and get out of control, the US market and economy could crash. The 1930s all over again. A large portion of the USA's exports to China are petroleum products and oil seeds and grains and plastics. With the tariffs now being imposed by China, Canada will happily take that market share on those commodities and once Canada does, China may not want to resume importing those commodities from the USA once the trade war is over and Canada may retain all or most of that market share resulting in big losses for US companies and farmers. Farms will be lost in the USA as a result. This is kind of ironic given that the big agricultural states voted overwhelmingly for Trump last election. Poetic justice to say the least. 😉
Fascinating coverage. I visited the Jabil factory in Guadlejara 10 yrs ago and saw first hand mass high teck manufacturing. Making millions of things a month isn't easy. The investment for a shoe factory isn't something I would be doing in the US right now.
I came away from this video with a clearer understanding that Trump is doing to our country exactly what he's done with all of his failed businesses. It's almost like we deserve what's going to happen because of our arrogance and lack of education.
Republicans have been working up to this for at least fifty years. Those super old men in congress and in business which refuse to retire are desperate to see the fruits of their decades of labor before they die. Koch bros (tho I think one already died). Muroch. Schwab. So many more that I wouldn't even know who they were to list them, but this has been their dream, funding the Heritage Foundation for just this very scenario.
@@amcg7546 Speaking a Schwab, incidentally I moved all my investments somewhere when I saw the clip with Trump at Mar-A-Lardo, bragging about the billions all these rich dudes made last week.
"to our country exactly what he's done with all of his failed businesses." You left out the successful businesses for a reason? " It's almost like we deserve what's going to happen because of our arrogance and lack of education." It's comments like that that have your angrily posting on the internet while the majority of voters are glad to have avoided Harris.
The Apprentice is one of his few successful ventures. His 3 casinos went bankrupt. Another dozen and Trump U just failed. His golf courses and real estate ventures are privately held. He bankrupted a total of six times including the 3 casinos. He has avoided most taxes by using losses to offset taxable profits of many millions. So we don’t really know all the successes and failures of his private ventures. Licensing agreements etc. We would need his tax returns. He also received and lost millions from his father and his estate.
Valuable information, especially for those who don't understand bonds. I appreciate you educating the public about THE ENORMOUS RISKS to U.S. investors and Americans in general.
We now know that the Call activity surged significantly 5 minutes before the official announcement Which is really dumb on their part to buy that heavily when they are breaking the law and committing insider trading. They will probably evade Federal prosecution but New York and other states may be able to prosecute them
The bottom line in all of this is that the tariffs stunt makes absolutely no sense. For instance, if you want to bring manufacturing back, which as Joe described will require massive facilities, why place massive tariffs on steel? You have now effectively raised the cost of construction of these facilities to a point where it is prohibitive.
the reason is obvious - creating chaos... people will become scared, en-masse... then manipulations in social networks are getting much more effective... as a rule of thumb: trump is trying to get even better control over his base, all the time
"he bottom line in all of this is that the tariffs stunt makes absolutely no sense." Projecting a short term outcome on a long term play makes no sense. "why place massive tariffs on steel?" To promote your domestic steel production during the build out. You just increased the number of US steel workers in the mid to long term.
@@shawnmurray9964 " AFTER you are self sufficient" The US already is self-sufficient in steel production. In contrast, the UK just closed its last steel mill after selling it to China.
so if I understand correctly, China has $1.2tn in US bonds. Exports to US was less than $600bn/year, but today it was announced that tariffs on electronics was lifted, so it's more like $450bn/year exports that are still facing tariffs. Does that mean that China can slowly sell those bonds and cover exporters' losses for next 3 years?
Those $450bn/year goods can be sold to other country or transship it via other country to US to skirt the tariffs Or China can just dump the bond because there is no use for bonds to china since china wont gonna do much trade with US anyway, which will cause major chain reaction : firesale of US bonds because everyone would sell too China can use that money to stimulus its own domestic market So the memes that saying Trump : i have lots of cards Xi : those cards are made in china Its funny but its true
The actual figure is uncertain, as China apparently has further holdings through third parties. They have also been doing other things to protect themselves, like devaluing their currency. They are not backing down but clearly intend to fight this trade war seriously.
Thank you so very much for this information. You are helping we non-finance literate Americans understand what is happening. I highly doubt our president has even a grade school level of knowledge about what you are talking about.
"I highly doubt our president has even a grade school level of knowledge about what you are talking about." Sure, Wharton would never cover bonds in their MBA program.
He bailed out the Fat Cats Apple and so forth. But what about all small and medium sized US businesses that desperately depend on imports from China? They have no buffers att all to ride out this shitstorm. They are doomed if Donald don't lift the tariffs for all businesses.
I have been investing in stocks since I was 23 years old. Remained 100% equity until I retired at 55 which was 3 years ago. Now I am 80% equity. Over the years, owning bonds in my portfolio never made sense to me. This research confirms my experience but certainly you have to be able to stay the course during major downturns!
I do not disagree, there are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy or market condition, but such execution are usually carried out by investment experts with experience since the 08'
The issue is people have the "I want to do it myself mentality" but not equipped enough for a crash, hence get burnt. Ideally, advisors are reps for investing jobs, and at first-hand encounter, my portfolio has yielded over 300% since 2020 just after the pandemic to date.
I usually go with registered representative; Sophia Nadene Morgan, she provides a more grounded approach, looking at factors like market demand, regulatory changes, and adoption trends. This approach enable to make informed decisions rather than solely relying on emotional market dynamics
I appreciate this. After curiously searching her name online and reviewing her credentials, I'm quite impressed. l've contacted her as I could use all the help I can get outlining my objectives.
We can't ignore the potential impact on portfolios. Bonds are often considered a safe haven, and if they eventually crumble, investors like me might scramble. I’ve been investing for 11 yrs and my 1m portfolio has never been this depleted, how i do hedge this?
In fact, markets have been incorrectly priced in such a way that the fed has to pivot six times over the last two years, according to Deutsche Bank, which sounded cautious about this seventh time. This show why pointers from finance-managers are essential
A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I needed a good boost to stay afloat, hence I engaged the services of a true market strategist to help rejuvenate my 700k portfolio and boost performance and returns by 40% in a little over four years.
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with Melissa Terri Swayne for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
No it's technically worse than that. If you have a 10% drop off of $10 that would leave you with $9. And then if it increased by 5% you would have $9.45. no I don't blame anyone percentages and whole numbers are different and the school system sucks
My oldest son married a danish girl and moved to Aalborg, had three kids. The biggest shock was the free day care and education. Second biggest: 100% tariff on all automobiles
So I was doing zone 2 cardio and trying to push my heart beat to 125 bpm. As soon as I saw Something to Put a Smile on Your Face, my bpm dropped to 117. You’ve found a cure for stress!
You have missed the biggest reason behind the bond selling. It’s not nations yet - that can still happen. It is hedge funds that have leveraged 10x for margin trading (which gives very small but stable returns) and the hedge funds are facing margin calls from their financial backers. This is because they have used their portfolios as collateral for the leverage and with the uncertainty in the markets, they are having to sell off their treasury bills and bonds to free up liquidity. This is why you will probably see a huge hedge fund bail-out in the next few weeks to protect the bond markets. This is going to get very bad before it gets better.
Yo, this "USA Bond Crisis" vid has me shook! 🙈 I've got 173k burning a hole in my pocket, ready to invest, but bonds sound like a dumpster fire right now. Should I just YOLO it into crypto or what?
Whoa, hold up on the crypto roulette, friend! 😅 Bonds might be shaky, but there’s still gold in a diversified portfolio. My financial advisor turned my 100k into a steady grower-let’s just say I sleep better now. Highly recommend getting a pro to sort you out!
Okay, you both make solid points, but I’m sitting on some cash and wanna invest smart. I know I need an advisor, but where do I even start? Feels like finding a needle in a haystack! 😩
Finding a good advisor can be tricky, no doubt! There are a handful of CFAs I’ve tried over the years, but I’ve stuck with Linda Aretha Reeves for some time now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s known in her field, look her up.
If you're trying to buy bonds directly I honestly don't recommend it. Mostly because the bond markets better for hedging like the futures market is. If you just want something safe you could look into bond trading ETF funds we will do the management work for you. There are a lot of ways for safe investment in the market but they just don't have great returns. Personally I'm into the options chains, and cash right now. The only stocks I hold are in my IRA and those are 15 plus year investments.
A few years ago, people were talking about how China was the major holder of US bonds and were worried about this. I used to think that selling our bonds as an attack on America would end up as a suicide pact between China and the US. But now it seems like it is going to happen. I still think China is going to come out in worse shape, since it is so dependent on exports for growth. And they are also alienating investors from other countries by threatening them with confiscation of property and imprisonment of company officers for "espionage", so China is headed for a meltdown caused by their own pride. But DJT is a one man wrecking ball to destroy a perfectly good economy and destroy the trust of the rest of the world. All this is an "own goal" by DJT, since he is an idiot.
Sounds like a skeptical outlook on things then. With the rate cuts do you think it's best for us who are not conservative investors to focus on bonds or dividend stocks? I want to reallocate my 7-figure portfolio and I preferably want the assets with the best ROI.
Bonds are a safer bet. They offer good stable yields. But dividend stocks could make you a fortune if you know how to go about it. But it's always a good idea to work with a CFA. It streamline your strategy and help profit a lot.
I've been through the 'bonds are beating stocks' periods since the 90s with no bonds and with all aggressive stock mutual funds. At 66, my IRA and cash accounts are far more than I expected for my retirement. I can easily handle a worst-case 80% stock crash, Thanks to my CFA.
Mind if I look up your advisr please? I've worked in real estate for over 15 years and have neglected a major stock portfolio. This served me well when I was flipping and renting houses, however I need a different plan now.
‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy’’ is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
I heard that it was Norinchukin (Japanese government agricultural bank / hedge fund) that blew up and had to dump all their US bonds last week. It wasn't any kind of government strategy. This has now been denied by the bank.
Not sure about this logic but if the imports from China goes down which are not easily replaced there will be the same amount of dollars chasing fewer products which will in itself result in higher prices.
Given the current market volatility and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, I'm considering whether to sell my $401k in equities. What are the most effective strategies for capitalizing on potential market downturns? Should I consider shifting some of my investments to bonds as a more conservative option?
Given the current market conditions and economic uncertainty, it might be prudent to consider holding some bonds as a more conservative investment. You may also want to consult with a financial advisor before making any significant changes to your equity holdings
You have a very valid point, I started investing on my own and for a long time, the market was really ripping me off. I decided to hire a CFA, even though I was skeptical at first, and I beat the market by more than 9%. I thought it was a fluke until it happened two years in a row, and so I’ve been sticking to investing via an analyst.
This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? I'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
Thank you for saving me hours of back and forth investigation into the markets. I simply copied and pasted her full name into my browser, and her website came up first in search results. She looks flawless.
Tariffs are largly rolled back now and will completely be removed shortly because they realized nobody else other than China, even partners has the supply chain to even close to replace them. Plus, what exactly do we have to offer them. Chinas consumer market is as big as ours AND manufacture most items.
Every week I buy more of whatever is the lowest percentage of my portfolio and try to keep everything around 10%. Please what could be my safest buys with $400k to outperform the market in 2025?
Find quality stocks that have long term potential, and ride with those stocks. I have found it takes someone who is very familiar with the market to make such good picks.
I agree. Based on personal experience working with an investment advisor, I currently have $385k in a well-diversified portfolio that has experienced exponential growth. It's not only about having money to invest in stocks, but you also need to be knowledgeable, persistent, and have strong hands to back it up.
‘’Lisa Grace Myer’’ is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Its not only the US vs China because even the 10% base tariffs that are still on all countries is still very high, all time high compared to before Trump was in office. So even if Trump "negotiates" with all 100 countries in 90 days and removes all tariffs except the base 10% tariffs that is still an unprecedented high tariff situation. Also Trump's insults, bullying and boastful behavior set a tone for relations with other countries from here on that is ultimately not good for the US and the world. Some say proclaiming crazy high tariffs or taking over Greenland or taking over the Gaza strip, relocating 2 million Palestinians and leveling it to make it into a resort are just negotiating tactics but IMO its just plain LIES to the whole world. When you are the president of the US and you lie to the whole world it damages the credibility of the US permanently to some degree. You can't unring a bell, the toothpaste is already out of the tube.
The richest country in the world with the highest consumption is innately going to have high trade deficits. It has the wealth to buy more from other countries than consumers in those countries can buy from the US. The whole trade deficit argument is just a narrative to convince simpletons that what trump is doing has logic to it, other than just trying to bully other countries in to falling in line with dumptys demands while bullying manufacturers to build in the USA. The issue with the latter is an iphone built in the US will cost 30k which I'm not sure many americans would be happy with. @@bogdanpanek3481
Reduce big trade deficit? It's only the middle target and i highly doubt it it can be reduced significantly. Tariffs is just the tool Donald use to "bully" global creditors. He blatantly said many countries will asked for negotiation. And his demand will include a terms that those countries buy US bonds. Added with whatever sum he got from tariffs income + budget cutting, it will be used to reduce US debts. This year alone, there is usd 9.5 trillion US bonds mature. Some will be paid by "the funds" he got from bullying and most of them will have to be refinance. His next goal is create a slow down/recession that will force the Fed to cut interest rate. Any decrease in the bond interest rate will help US treasury a lot. This will depend on how long this increase of yield will continue. If any country can see his "strategic goals" all plans prepared by Trump and his team will fall apart. And his gamble will fail big time.
@@bogdanpanek3481 Wrong. They're going to increase US trade deficits because other countries don't want US products unless there's no alternative. Example, US armaments, other countries, such as Canada and European countries are cancelling their orders for US made military kit and looking to European made kit. Citizens are boycotting US products and services like tourism. America was importing a lot of goods, but it was exporting a lot of trust. Other countries would 'buy' that trust and invest in America, or buy American government bonds, buy American products because they're backed by America. Not any longer. Wherever possible American products are going to be sourced elsewhere. The real purpose of import taxes on Americans (aka tariffs) is to extract money from poor people and channel it to rich people. As well as increasing taxes on poor people Trump and the Republicans are going to give big tax cuts to the very richest. That is the ultimate effect of the tariffs, so we can assume that is the real purpose of the tariffs.
@@JohnSmall314 why is trump applying tariffs in the first place? because of the deficits. The deficits will go to as close to zero as possible, even if that means no trade. And no trade= zero deficit. We made all these chachkis here before, and can quickly again. Entire regions of the US have empty factories ready for new machinery to make stuff.
Joe, You should really consider distributers. They put on huge markups after having imported goods. Typically, a $10 imported good will be sold in shops for $25 (2.5 times multiplied). If they sell at the same profit level, this will now mean a $10 imported good from China will be tariffed to $24.50 and then sold at $39.50. For the consumer, this is "only" a 58% increase. Having said that, I'm sure distributers will also be greedy anyway, and increase their margin. They will doubtless be asking why should just the government profit from these tariffs?
They can mark up the prices to whatever they want, but will the consumers keep on buying like no tomorrow? When recession hits the economy, they will know the answer.
Your math assumes that the shop will be happy with the same profit dollars ($15). However, businesses are often more concerned about profit margin in percentage. So if they use the same 2.5 multiple on their new higher cost in order to maintain their profit margin, the price to the consumer will be $61.25.
@@floydbjorgan6633I can say from direct daily experience that when distributors raise costs to the retailer where I work, maybe half of that can be successfully passed onto the consumer. Our costs on our most popular products have more than doubled recently, but our margin, as a percentage, is at best two thirds of what it was before, and sometimes half. Between the distributors and credit card processing fees, our business has never been tighter.
I really love your way of thinking 100% I listen to it and I taking into consideration to talk to trump about it because your insides are very helpful I have direct access to trump
Sounds feasible to me. Trump only surrounds himself with people that have no real knowledge or intelligence, because he doesn't feel threatened by them. So any kind of advisor that gets his ideas from RUclips sounds realistic.
I hope you don't tie up too much of your Capital. As soon as Trump can move on to the next thing and not have to take a public loss on this tariff issue, he'll dump it. I think he's figuring out. It's a loser
A quick thinking 👍. But I'm curious about Donnie plan tho. Why it's only an Executive order why he didn't bring it to Congress and make it as a tax bill. Maybe because he can change it, pause it again, up and down, or maybe even scrap it at all after he make a deal with Xi. It's not good for business planning. How to make a projection in situation like this.
I like how Joe explains the situations in such a way that it's clear who's at fault but not using language that will trigger the crazies.
Marketing his channel well.
He explained the fall of the Russian economy in march 2022. He explains things incorrectly quite clearly. He is on point here, but without explaining “who printed” and “why they printed”. His buddy Biden printed and they printed for Covid and funding Ukraine. In a nutshell, the fall of the US economy is because of Fauci’s Covid and Biden’s Ukraine war. Two situations that were completely avoidable. This highlights just how arrogant US leaders are. And the ones behind all the decisions in the US are Steins
CRAZIES IS THE LIBERELS WHO HATE PRESEDENT TRUMP BCUZ HE IS SMARTER THEN THEM ARE HAHAHAHAHA
From what I can tell, they generally live triggered
I am not great on politics could be because I am 15, I like how Joe explains very clearly and easily to understand.
I really appreciate this bond lesson. I saw a video where the Fox News host look directly into the screen and told everyone that we didn't understand what a bond was. What he was really trying to tell everyone was to shut up. So this is much appreciated. I don't own any bonds but now I know what they are.
If you’ve got any pension entitlements that are being managed by a private entity, there are probably bonds in the mix of investments they’ve made on your behalf.
I agree with the other reply. Especially if you have an age based fund. It would include a mix of less risky stocks, and bonds and possibly real estate. It’s considered a balanced fund. Less growth but less downside.
Bonds concern everyone, if it crashes, dollar will crash, and inflation comes, nobody can escape.
we all know stock market has bubble, behind stocks is the bond market, the bigger bubble. scary.
They need to explain it to Trump. He's the one who doesn't understand economics. Unless it's all a big "crash and dash".
Housing crisis, health crisis, cost of living crisis, debt crisis, inflation crisis, EU war crisis, middle East crisis, bank crisis, retirement crisis. How many crises can a koala bear?
I was just thinking the same... I'm approaching retirement with comfortable millions, yet scared of leaving my savings in the bank, pondering if I should just buy gold to preserve and grow my money
gold to me is an inflation hedge for long term, but not quite profitable in the short run, you can get more insights or guidance from financial advisors
Straight up! investing with the help of an advisor set me up for life, retired as a millionaire at 55. I worked hard everyday as a teacher for 32 years, and my salary was over 100k annually. However, if it wasn't for covid-19 lockdown, I wouldn't have supplemented my income with stocks and alternative investments.
bravo! I've worked in real estate for over 25 years and have neglected a major stock portfolio, but I need a different plan now... mind if I look up the professional guiding you please?
I have a female advisor named Kelley Annette Lewis . I recommend researching her. To be very honest, I'm glad I decided to let someone handle expanding my finances even though I almost didn't think I should.
I remember the events with Greece. If US bonds are no longer attractive, the US will have to raise interest rates, which will cost them dearly. And it will make it more difficult to raise capital if they lose confidence on the international market. Most US citizens are taking it very casually; they don't understand the long-term consequences. They don't get it, they think everything will be fine, we are the US. btw, the FED belongs to a group of private banks
Unlike Greece, the US Federal Reserve could purchase all the US debt. The Federal Reserve owns approximately $5 trillion of U.S. debt. The interest earned by the Fed is refunded to the Treasury so it lowers the cost of the debt.
@@Dave2170 the FED belongs to a group of private banks? And you think they would purchase all the debt?
@Ezekiel903 It is both public and private. You should Google it for the details if you are interested. The rise in interest rates only affects new debt sold in the market so it takes a number of years to make an impact and the $9T held by the government is also interest free. A recession would lower interest rates and a devaluation of the US dollar would help US exports.
Btw, I'm not trying to defend the orange turd clown president that should be sitting in jail.
@@Ezekiel903 I don't think they would purchase all of the US debt but they could. The Fed currently own about $5T.
@@Dave2170 they would never do that, even 5T$ is too much. The Fed has private shareholders, unlike any other central bank. Shareholders include Rockefeller and other financial giants. They would never allow it
A 12% drop requires MORE than a 12% rise to get back to the original price.
If the price of a stock declines by 50 per cent, it must rise by 100 per cent to get back to its old price. The power of compounding works great when everything is going up in price, [your money doubles every 7.2 years when it can earn an interest rate of 10%] but when prices fall you have a real problem recovering your losses.
@ exactly
Glad to see that someone understands Business Math. It's not real math but is used by businesses to make losses look smaller and profits look great.
@ thanks. Yeah sad part is it’s easier to lose than win when you really think about it. That’s another reason I hate it when people talk about what the market returns “on average”. It’s super misleading or at the minimum gives an incomplete impression
@@MaxTSanchesWrong. It's just basic math; there's no difference whatsoever to make it "business math". 100 * .5 = 50. 50 * 2 = 100. 100 declines by 50% of 100 to equal 50. 50 rises by 100% of 50 to equal 100.
This is exactly the type of information people need right now, thank you.
Japan sold more bonds than China this week, though China now seem to have a policy to sell 50 billion US treasury bonds periodically
What upset the bonds market is Japan couldn’t actually sell them off! Nobody would buy them. That scared the WH into reducing tariffs again.
50 billion here, 50 billion there...pretty soon you are talking about a lot of money!
Yep, China acts slowly but with confidence.
Other countries are doing likewise
Who wants to be indebt to China? American banks need to be buying the bonds.
One of the best explanations about the subject I have heard so far. Ty, well done. And yes, it's a mess.
Love the new camera. Don't change. I like the straightforward businesslike briefings and the charts are spectacular
I second that notion. 😊
I was horrified that the UK is the third highest holder of American debt !
If I were a Britt I would be too. It is scary enough being American.
The UK can't exactly afford to hold all that US debt, given how it's impoverished itself with Brexit and the only cure for that is British reentry which the UK political class won't even consider. The sooner UK politicians realize that the UK's lot is with the EU and no longer with the United States the better.
@@EdwardM-t8p Starmer is still spending our taxes on the US proxy war in Ukraine. He is slow to realise that the war is over and the US is going to make a massive long term profit out of minerals and rare earths. The US has the last laugh. I don't agree with rejoining the EU. The last 20 years we were in the EU we lost money every year and covered up our failure to make a fiscal surplus with borrowing. We could not afford to stay in and rejoining is not going to be the land of milk and honey you are promising
It is so much worse than presented here. Half of most pension funds are in us securities. Including uk teachers pension. The health services. Etc.
Half of all invested savings world wide are tied to us bonds and stocks.
@@EdwardM-t8p Please grow up !
I’ve come away from this video with a broad understanding of Bonds, which I never had before. Thank you Joe.
In 2025, the US government must refinance $9.2 trillion of maturing debt. In 2024, the US fiscal revenue is $4.9 trillion, and the expenditure is $7 trillion, with a fiscal loss of about $2 trillion a year.
Of this, about $6.5 trillion will mature in June, so at least $8 trillion must be raised before June to repay the principal and interest.
This year, the United States will have to issue at least $12 trillion in US debt to repay old debts and interest.
In 2024, Germany, the third largest GDP in the world, will have $5 trillion. Even if Germany does not eat or drink for two years, it will not be enough to lend the United States $12 trillion
@@lijackson-x6r They roll it over.
I wish he had been my economics professor in college.
You don't understand near as much as you think you do. People go to college for 12 years to get a doctorate in economics and they still don't understand economics.
Joe does explain it better than most but he still makes it too complicated.
A bond is a loan, simple as that. They use different words, "coupon" instead of "interest" and "mature" instead of "expire" but that's just to confuse people. It's the same as if you go to a bank and borrow some money from them.
Except for two fairly minor differences. One is that there are no installments. You pay back the whole loan when it expires... I mean "matures". Before that you only pay the interest ... I mean "coupons". The other is that rather than go to one bank and ask for a loan, you go to the open market and ask if anybody want to lend you the money.
Superbly explained. Thank you, Joe. Keep up the good work.
My understanding is Japan and Canada have been selling bonds as well.
The whole G7 started back in November knowing what Trump had said would upset the markets
@ I think Mark Carney initiated the talks with Japan and the EU that shows America is not as dominant as it was.
They do it to crash the dollar, and they just started...
Sixteen countries dumped a total of $390 billion US Treasury bonds.
Its fair to say a LOT of trust in the US and US markets has been lost in the last few weeks, I think this is the tip of the iceberg, the real damage will be seen progressively over the next year or two.
Thanks
Joe blogs ? More like Joe rocks 🎸 . Thank you main man Joe. Keep up making great videos, I’ll always support with a like and a comment. Love statues.
Thanks for the concise and clear explanation Joe, it's the first time I understand what everyone's on about when they panic over bond yield rising.
It's such a backhanded way of saying people are selling bonds at a discount.
Does that really means we have to rush into but buying of the mentioned stock to level up our stock growth by a greater percentage or are we to seek adviser from a professional…because i don’t know where the stock market is actually heading to in this recent time
Find quality stocks that have long term potential, and ride with those stocks. I have found it takes someone who is very familiar with the market to make such good picks
I agree with you. I started out with investing on my own, but I lost a lot of money. I was able to pull out about $200k after the 2020 crash. I invested the money using an analyst, and in seven months, I raked in almost $673,000
Can you share details of your advisor? I want to invest my increased cash flow in stocks and alternative assets to achieve my financial goals.
Rebecca Lynne Buie is the licensed advisor I use and i'm just putting this out here because you asked. You can Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up immediately. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her.
You know what you are talking about. I appreciate all the details. Look forward to each and every episode.
The Chinese trade minister said that China was not going to raise above 125%. 125% tariff prices American goods out of the market, anything higher would just be for show.
A mature response to Donald's madness!
And its not that they will stop the game. It is that they will answer in a different way. Including spelling ruge amount of bonds AND dollar.
@gerrycastlemanwarde5933stop it China is as much of a problem as the USA China has been manipulating markets and flooding country’s with underpriced goods destroying domestic markets they are not the good guys
100% would take goods out of the markets. I think they just got tired and are seeking other weapons
That's not true, a lot of Chinese buy American milk powder and baby formula because it's safe, unlike Chinese milk powder that contains random chemicals specially designed to trick the machinery that tests the milk powder for nutritional content to give false readings. The price doesn't matter. Not to mention the risks of having Melanin in China made milk powder and white rabbit candy given to children. Chinese people actually care about their childrens health but the Chinese food companies only care about their profits and a lot of them have fake nutrition labels and everybody in China knows it. The Chinese Communist Party is easily bribed to look the other way. So Chinese people will continue to buy foreign products they know are safe to consume at any price point over their own locally processed foods, especially when babies and their children are concerned.
A country with a huge economy based on consumption and heavily in debt, should not piss off its creditors. It's like an alcoholic picking a fight with the liquor shop owner. It won't end well.
Spot on 👍. Now the consumption will plumet. Good luck with that.
BINGO!
Good observation although I suppose the alcoholic(s) contribute to the owners profits so perhaps they need each other to some extent, a marriage made in hell ?
😂😂❤
Dot on
This new format is so, so much better than the old one.
I read an article that stated the Canadian priminister went to Europe and got together with them and arranged a slow bleed of US bonds if they implemented tariff s.
Makes sense to me…problem is those in charge in the U.S. have no clue. I would bet money this is being ignored…heard another channel mention this is what China could do easily and really hurt the U.S. but again, apparently ignorance is truly bliss. 😢
Snopes, my favourite debunking site is looking into it to see if it is true or not.
Apparently it is
Yes, Carney is an extremely clever man. British people ought to have listened to him when he said Brexit wasn’t a good idea economically.
Japan certainly dropped a whole shedload of US bonds into the market not long before Trump changed his mind on the wider-world “Liberation Day” tariffs, though I’m not entirely sure whether this was part of the Carney strategy or not.
Japan is very risk-averse, and they may just be wishing to hedge against further madness by exchanging part of their US bond holdings for bonds from more reliable countries.
Carney is playing chess and got Germany, France, Italy, UK and Japan to buy US bonds as leverage on tarriffs. Toddler trump is playing cards just happens it was 'snap' which is the true measure his business accumen!
Excellent content
i absolutely love that you now put your cam on the corner when showing a document!! keep it up Joe!
Lovely coherent explanation as usual. I so much enjoy and learn from Joe's essays.
Thank You. One of your best videos ever. Keep up the good work.
I am awfully late investing at 45 with just about 180,000 in savings. Can I still retire with $1 million by 50 if I begin investing aggressively?
my opinion is do not go it alone, work the plan with a reputable financial advisor, one with vast experience
True, nothing beats expertise! Since 2020 pandemic, I’ve built a portfolio made up of 15% NVDA, 20% APPL, 15% SCHD, 15% VOO, and the rest in digital currency. I and my advisor are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal and I'm just about 25% shy from it.
wish to know more about gold, stocks, bonds, etc and probably start my investing journey, think your coach can help?
Sure i don't mind. I've stuck with ‘’ JULIA HOPE MARBLE " for years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look her up.
Thanks for saving me hours of research! I just searched her full name, and her website popped up first, she looks impressive.
I do love these graphs, very self explanatory
Recessions are an unavoidable part of the economic cycle; all you can do is prepare for them and plan accordingly. I graduated into a slump (2009). My first job after graduating from college was as an aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Today, I work as a VP for a global corporation, own three rental properties, invest in stocks and businesses, run my own company, and have increased my net worth by $500k in the last four years.
Investors should exercise caution with their exposure and exercise caution when considering new investments, particularly during periods of crash. It is advisable to seek guidance from a professional or trusted advisor in order to navigate this recession and achieve potential high yields.
I've been in touch with a financial advisor ever since I started my business. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders.
incredible, a fantastic start to financial independence! How can I contact your FA.
Finding financial advisors like ''Elizabeth Catharine cremin''' who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
I just looked her up on the internet and found her webpage with her credentials. I wrote her a outlining my financial objectives and planned a call with her.
I had problem comprehending trading in general. I tried watching other RUclips trading channels, but they made the concepts more complicated. I was almost giving up until when i discovered content and explain everything in detail. The videos are easy to follow
I've been making a lot of looses trying to make profit trading. I thought trading on a demo account is just like trading the real market. Can anyone help me out or at least advise me on what to do?
Trading on a demo account can definitely feel similar to the real market, but there are some differences. It's important to remember that trading involves risks and it's normal to face looses sometimes. One piece of advice is to start small and gradually increase your investments as you gain more experience and confidence. It might also be helpful to seek guidance from experienced traders or do some research on different trading strategies
I will advise you should stop trading on your own if you keep losing
If you can, then get a professional to trade for you i think that way your assets are more secure
I'd recommend Mrs Catherine Williams, her profit is great even when there's a dip trust me.
I am not sure that many Americans realise what the loss of the USD as the world's reserve currency will do to the US. This alone is worth trillions, and yet they bleat on about "How unfair" the current system is.
To be fair the yanks, I don't think a lot of people have a clue how much large parts of the world have used the dollar to keep their own economy stable. If the dollar goes, it will affect every economy out there both directly and indirectly.
@@ZwampifyGood assessment, thanks.
Faux bravado
The bretton woods agreement aka the old system basically was America bribing other countries to stand with them against the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union is gone and other countries are sticking up for China over America why the fuck would America keep the old system? No I am not kidding why?
It's the consequence of Dollar as world reserve. Trump chief economic advisor knows this danger and brief him about the cost of US umbrella.
And i think Ray Dalio gave a hint about this also and about "unprecedented and historical" moves will be made by Trump.
So, a few economist advise Trump to make big economy decisions. But i think sadly, those advisors made excellent diagnosis but gave poison as remedies.
Thanks! Keep it up.
i never thought of it but the fact is that the tariffs have increased each time i have heard about them being 125% and 104% and previously they were also increased!
Joe, I love your "now here's something to put a smile on your face", especially today because you presented those totally adorable 🥰 calico squirrels! 🐿️🐿️
thank you joe. i've been looking / waiting for such a clear simple explanation on how this all works.
Great video, very informative. The US economy is now in a very precarious position and financial ruin could soon be on the way. If the US dollar begins to devalue, which it is doing, and bond holders start to believe that the dollar will devalue even further, bond holders and potential bond buyers will see that their US bond yields will be largely or completely offset by the drop in value of the currency (USD) underlying those bonds. That will then cause a lot more of the bond holders to try to get out of holding US dollar based debt instruments and will further reduce demand for US bonds and T-Bills, etc. This will, in turn, drive the value of the USD down even further and the whole thing becomes a snowball effect. More selloff of US dollar backed debt instruments leads to lower USD leading to even more selloff of USD debt and so on. If this snowball begins to run away and get out of control, the US market and economy could crash. The 1930s all over again.
A large portion of the USA's exports to China are petroleum products and oil seeds and grains and plastics. With the tariffs now being imposed by China, Canada will happily take that market share on those commodities and once Canada does, China may not want to resume importing those commodities from the USA once the trade war is over and Canada may retain all or most of that market share resulting in big losses for US companies and farmers. Farms will be lost in the USA as a result. This is kind of ironic given that the big agricultural states voted overwhelmingly for Trump last election. Poetic justice to say the least. 😉
Thanks Joe for the update , and explaining Bonds/ yields etc … 💙💛💙
Always appreciate your analysis ! Thank you for sharing !
Fascinating coverage. I visited the Jabil factory in Guadlejara 10 yrs ago and saw first hand mass high teck manufacturing. Making millions of things a month isn't easy. The investment for a shoe factory isn't something I would be doing in the US right now.
Just a note on the "pause"- there's no pause, there's still 10% on every country on the list - excluding Russia, Belarus, North Korea and Cuba..
Exactly!
The famous "Bond villain" 😂
My name is Bond, Junk Bond :-)
More like the Austin Powers movies with the highly incompetent Dr Evil. Trump is as stupid as Dr Evil.
One of the best rises in the market followed one the worst. Except the bad out weighed the good.
I came away from this video with a clearer understanding that Trump is doing to our country exactly what he's done with all of his failed businesses. It's almost like we deserve what's going to happen because of our arrogance and lack of education.
Republicans have been working up to this for at least fifty years. Those super old men in congress and in business which refuse to retire are desperate to see the fruits of their decades of labor before they die. Koch bros (tho I think one already died). Muroch. Schwab. So many more that I wouldn't even know who they were to list them, but this has been their dream, funding the Heritage Foundation for just this very scenario.
@@amcg7546 Speaking a Schwab, incidentally I moved all my investments somewhere when I saw the clip with Trump at Mar-A-Lardo, bragging about the billions all these rich dudes made last week.
Trump used to sell a clothing line , guess where it was made ?
ruclips.net/video/SYoOPgeTMQc/видео.htmlsi=08uvM6frsJHDKFTH
"to our country exactly what he's done with all of his failed businesses."
You left out the successful businesses for a reason?
" It's almost like we deserve what's going to happen because of our arrogance and lack of education."
It's comments like that that have your angrily posting on the internet while the majority of voters are glad to have avoided Harris.
The Apprentice is one of his few successful ventures. His 3 casinos went bankrupt. Another dozen and Trump U just failed. His golf courses and real estate ventures are privately held. He bankrupted a total of six times including the 3 casinos. He has avoided most taxes by using losses to offset taxable profits of many millions. So we don’t really know all the successes and failures of his private ventures. Licensing agreements etc. We would need his tax returns. He also received and lost millions from his father and his estate.
Valuable information, especially for those who don't understand bonds. I appreciate you educating the public about THE ENORMOUS RISKS to U.S. investors and Americans in general.
We now know that the Call activity surged significantly 5 minutes before the official announcement
Which is really dumb on their part to buy that heavily when they are breaking the law and committing insider trading.
They will probably evade Federal prosecution but New York and other states may be able to prosecute them
They assumed that they are invulnerable with Trump in the WH. I guess they forgot that the NYSE is based in the state of NY.
It's one of those glass-half-full glass-half-empty things. For many, Trump's chaos, lawlessness, and corruption is a feature not a bug.
Thanks to you, I finally now understand the relationship between Bond Price, and yield!
Awesome commentary!
Thanks!
The bottom line in all of this is that the tariffs stunt makes absolutely no sense. For instance, if you want to bring manufacturing back, which as Joe described will require massive facilities, why place massive tariffs on steel? You have now effectively raised the cost of construction of these facilities to a point where it is prohibitive.
Indeed, the time to slam the market is AFTER you are self sufficient, not before 🤦🏻♀️
the reason is obvious - creating chaos... people will become scared, en-masse... then manipulations in social networks are getting much more effective... as a rule of thumb: trump is trying to get even better control over his base, all the time
"he bottom line in all of this is that the tariffs stunt makes absolutely no sense."
Projecting a short term outcome on a long term play makes no sense.
"why place massive tariffs on steel?"
To promote your domestic steel production during the build out. You just increased the number of US steel workers in the mid to long term.
@@shawnmurray9964 " AFTER you are self sufficient"
The US already is self-sufficient in steel production. In contrast, the UK just closed its last steel mill after selling it to China.
and they are kicking out the cheap illegal labour as well. Where is Trump going to find the people to screw in the Iphone screws?
Found this when i was searching for Bond. I am new & this is a good & easy to understand. Thanks 🙏
so if I understand correctly, China has $1.2tn in US bonds. Exports to US was less than $600bn/year, but today it was announced that tariffs on electronics was lifted, so it's more like $450bn/year exports that are still facing tariffs. Does that mean that China can slowly sell those bonds and cover exporters' losses for next 3 years?
Those $450bn/year goods can be sold to other country or transship it via other country to US to skirt the tariffs
Or
China can just dump the bond because there is no use for bonds to china since china wont gonna do much trade with US anyway, which will cause major chain reaction : firesale of US bonds because everyone would sell too
China can use that money to stimulus its own domestic market
So the memes that saying
Trump : i have lots of cards
Xi : those cards are made in china
Its funny but its true
The actual figure is uncertain, as China apparently has further holdings through third parties. They have also been doing other things to protect themselves, like devaluing their currency. They are not backing down but clearly intend to fight this trade war seriously.
❌Bessent said it was NOT China 🤷♀️
It could be the Swiss &/or the Japanese as the Franc & the Yen have been skyrocketing lately 🤔
Excellent, as always!! Thank you Joe!
Thank you so very much for this information. You are helping we non-finance literate Americans understand what is happening. I highly doubt our president has even a grade school level of knowledge about what you are talking about.
"I highly doubt our president has even a grade school level of knowledge about what you are talking about."
Sure, Wharton would never cover bonds in their MBA program.
Oh no, Trump knows exactly what he is doing, he just doesn’t care, he has to reimburse all those billionaires that bankrolled his campaign somehow.
Thank you. Always appreciate the last bit.
He already blinked on most of the imports..electronics..😅😂🎉❤
He bailed out the Fat Cats Apple and so forth.
But what about all small and medium sized US businesses that desperately depend on imports from China? They have no buffers att all to ride out this shitstorm. They are doomed if Donald don't lift the tariffs for all businesses.
I have been investing in stocks since I was 23 years old. Remained 100% equity until I retired at 55 which was 3 years ago. Now I am 80% equity. Over the years, owning bonds in my portfolio never made sense to me. This research confirms my experience but certainly you have to be able to stay the course during major downturns!
I do not disagree, there are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy or market condition, but such execution are usually carried out by investment experts with experience since the 08'
The issue is people have the "I want to do it myself mentality" but not equipped enough for a crash, hence get burnt. Ideally, advisors are reps for investing jobs, and at first-hand encounter, my portfolio has yielded over 300% since 2020 just after the pandemic to date.
Due to the significant falls, I need advice on how to rebuild my portfolio and develop more successful tactics. Where can I find this coach?
I usually go with registered representative; Sophia Nadene Morgan, she provides a more grounded approach, looking at factors like market demand, regulatory changes, and adoption trends. This approach enable to make informed decisions rather than solely relying on emotional market dynamics
I appreciate this. After curiously searching her name online and reviewing her credentials, I'm quite impressed. l've contacted her as I could use all the help I can get outlining my objectives.
We can't ignore the potential impact on portfolios. Bonds are often considered a safe haven, and if they eventually crumble, investors like me might scramble. I’ve been investing for 11 yrs and my 1m portfolio has never been this depleted, how i do hedge this?
In fact, markets have been incorrectly priced in such a way that the fed has to pivot six times over the last two years, according to Deutsche Bank, which sounded cautious about this seventh time. This show why pointers from finance-managers are essential
A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I needed a good boost to stay afloat, hence I engaged the services of a true market strategist to help rejuvenate my 700k portfolio and boost performance and returns by 40% in a little over four years.
Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsior here? I’m in dire need for one
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with Melissa Terri Swayne for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Joe Blogs..Well done! Excellent explanation…
Bad math there, if your market falls by 12% one week and rises 6.5% next week you are still down 6.28%.
No it's technically worse than that. If you have a 10% drop off of $10 that would leave you with $9. And then if it increased by 5% you would have $9.45. no I don't blame anyone percentages and whole numbers are different and the school system sucks
Ummm...check your math. 12% - 6.5% = 5.5%
@@ernestinebass4371 But it is a percentage of the new, lower total, so the actual rise is less.
@@ernestinebass4371 my math is on point, try again
@@ernestinebass4371 and more, if one week it goes down 12% and next week up 12% you are still down 1.44%
Another outstanding explanation. You should be on TV.
Maybe the UK should cash in and use their US bond holdings in the UK. £700B would be a lot to play with.
The act of cashing in would cause a US debt crisis and possibly US debt default. At least the UK would have lots US dollar toilet paper.
A big dump will shock and shake the market.
A good plan is to sell slowly and steady by keeping a low profile.
Question is : Who owns the UK debt?
@@ec8107 so its better to slowly cash up in a managed way or is better to just be first
@ What the Chinese are doing.
Excellent video, very well explained. You have a new subscriber
You don't mention that both Canada and Japan were dumping US bonds while they were negotiating with the US about the tariffs 😊🖖🙏🇨🇦
Thank you Joe, that was a very good explanation of bond prices and yields show the affect each other ,
My oldest son married a danish girl and moved to Aalborg, had three kids. The biggest shock was the free day care and education. Second biggest: 100% tariff on all automobiles
Give the cost of good daycare and good education you can buy a new car every five years and still come out ahead.
Just buy a small second hand one.
A civilised country with proper healthcare
Denmark only has 10% national debt, the least corrupt country in the world since records began
The publicly funded healthcare system probably shocked him as well, particularly with three kids (Shocked in a good way that is )
Outstanding job explaining the situation.
The insider traders made money.
So I was doing zone 2 cardio and trying to push my heart beat to 125 bpm. As soon as I saw Something to Put a Smile on Your Face, my bpm dropped to 117. You’ve found a cure for stress!
Cristal clear explanation today, thank you very much👏👏👏
You have missed the biggest reason behind the bond selling. It’s not nations yet - that can still happen. It is hedge funds that have leveraged 10x for margin trading (which gives very small but stable returns) and the hedge funds are facing margin calls from their financial backers. This is because they have used their portfolios as collateral for the leverage and with the uncertainty in the markets, they are having to sell off their treasury bills and bonds to free up liquidity. This is why you will probably see a huge hedge fund bail-out in the next few weeks to protect the bond markets. This is going to get very bad before it gets better.
Excellent point, definitely a factor to consider...
Japan did also offload a significant number this week.
Always enjoy how you cut to the essence of your topic.
A very helpful explanation of the mystery of bond fluctuations. Thank you!
Thanks Joe. Always enjoy your clear and understandable breakdown of economics. :-)
Also, there are few good alternatives to US T bonds. Oh, we were into "theories" about sellers, etc. In other words, rumours without evidence.
Thanks for this. I now understand the inverse price/yield relationship of bonds. A great video.
Yo, this "USA Bond Crisis" vid has me shook! 🙈 I've got 173k burning a hole in my pocket, ready to invest, but bonds sound like a dumpster fire right now. Should I just YOLO it into crypto or what?
Whoa, hold up on the crypto roulette, friend! 😅 Bonds might be shaky, but there’s still gold in a diversified portfolio. My financial advisor turned my 100k into a steady grower-let’s just say I sleep better now. Highly recommend getting a pro to sort you out!
Okay, you both make solid points, but I’m sitting on some cash and wanna invest smart. I know I need an advisor, but where do I even start? Feels like finding a needle in a haystack! 😩
Finding a good advisor can be tricky, no doubt! There are a handful of CFAs I’ve tried over the years, but I’ve stuck with Linda Aretha Reeves for some time now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s known in her field, look her up.
I looked up Linda Aretha Reeves, and wow, she seems like the real deal!
Caught her at a Bloomberg finance summit years back-her talk was fire. Think I’ve found my guide for this investment journey! 🚀
This is such a fantastic explanation. Thank you, Sir.
My worst investment has been buying LT US Bonds to capitalize on capital gain if prices fall, and I been stopped out 3 times and am repositioning.
Wait ten years.
If you're trying to buy bonds directly I honestly don't recommend it. Mostly because the bond markets better for hedging like the futures market is. If you just want something safe you could look into bond trading ETF funds we will do the management work for you. There are a lot of ways for safe investment in the market but they just don't have great returns. Personally I'm into the options chains, and cash right now. The only stocks I hold are in my IRA and those are 15 plus year investments.
Great mini-lecture Joe, thank you.
The sound is
better this time
A few years ago, people were talking about how China was the major holder of US bonds and were worried about this. I used to think that selling our bonds as an attack on America would end up as a suicide pact between China and the US. But now it seems like it is going to happen. I still think China is going to come out in worse shape, since it is so dependent on exports for growth. And they are also alienating investors from other countries by threatening them with confiscation of property and imprisonment of company officers for "espionage", so China is headed for a meltdown caused by their own pride. But DJT is a one man wrecking ball to destroy a perfectly good economy and destroy the trust of the rest of the world. All this is an "own goal" by DJT, since he is an idiot.
Sounds like a skeptical outlook on things then. With the rate cuts do you think it's best for us who are not conservative investors to focus on bonds or dividend stocks? I want to reallocate my 7-figure portfolio and I preferably want the assets with the best ROI.
Bonds are a safer bet. They offer good stable yields. But dividend stocks could make you a fortune if you know how to go about it. But it's always a good idea to work with a CFA. It streamline your strategy and help profit a lot.
I've been through the 'bonds are beating stocks' periods since the 90s with no bonds and with all aggressive stock mutual funds.
At 66, my IRA and cash accounts are far more than I expected for my retirement. I can easily handle a worst-case 80% stock crash, Thanks to my CFA.
Mind if I look up your advisr please? I've worked in real estate for over 15 years and have neglected a major stock portfolio. This served me well when I was flipping and renting houses, however I need a different plan now.
‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy’’ is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
I heard that it was Norinchukin (Japanese government agricultural bank / hedge fund) that blew up and had to dump all their US bonds last week. It wasn't any kind of government strategy. This has now been denied by the bank.
Not sure about this logic but if the imports from China goes down which are not easily replaced there will be the same amount of dollars chasing fewer products which will in itself result in higher prices.
The last time the bond market moved like it did last week, the FED raised interest rates by 150 basis points in the next 5 months.
Given the current market volatility and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, I'm considering whether to sell my $401k in equities. What are the most effective strategies for capitalizing on potential market downturns? Should I consider shifting some of my investments to bonds as a more conservative option?
Given the current market conditions and economic uncertainty, it might be prudent to consider holding some bonds as a more conservative investment. You may also want to consult with a financial advisor before making any significant changes to your equity holdings
You have a very valid point, I started investing on my own and for a long time, the market was really ripping me off. I decided to hire a CFA, even though I was skeptical at first, and I beat the market by more than 9%. I thought it was a fluke until it happened two years in a row, and so I’ve been sticking to investing via an analyst.
This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? I'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
Sonya Lee Mitchell has been operating in the current market and is aware of future developments.
Thank you for saving me hours of back and forth investigation into the markets. I simply copied and pasted her full name into my browser, and her website came up first in search results. She looks flawless.
Tariffs are largly rolled back now and will completely be removed shortly because they realized nobody else other than China, even partners has the supply chain to even close to replace them. Plus, what exactly do we have to offer them. Chinas consumer market is as big as ours AND manufacture most items.
Every week I buy more of whatever is the lowest percentage of my portfolio and try to keep everything around 10%. Please what could be my safest buys with $400k to outperform the market in 2025?
Find quality stocks that have long term potential, and ride with those stocks. I have found it takes someone who is very familiar with the market to make such good picks.
I agree. Based on personal experience working with an investment advisor, I currently have $385k in a well-diversified portfolio that has experienced exponential growth. It's not only about having money to invest in stocks, but you also need to be knowledgeable, persistent, and have strong hands to back it up.
Glad to have stumbled on this conversation. Please can you leave the info of your investment advisor here? I'm in dire need for one.
‘’Lisa Grace Myer’’ is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thank you for the lead. I searched her up on google, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Excellent analysis and presentation as usual!
Its not only the US vs China because even the 10% base tariffs that are still on all countries is still very high, all time high compared to before Trump was in office. So even if Trump "negotiates" with all 100 countries in 90 days and removes all tariffs except the base 10% tariffs that is still an unprecedented high tariff situation. Also Trump's insults, bullying and boastful behavior set a tone for relations with other countries from here on that is ultimately not good for the US and the world. Some say proclaiming crazy high tariffs or taking over Greenland or taking over the Gaza strip, relocating 2 million Palestinians and leveling it to make it into a resort are just negotiating tactics but IMO its just plain LIES to the whole world. When you are the president of the US and you lie to the whole world it damages the credibility of the US permanently to some degree. You can't unring a bell, the toothpaste is already out of the tube.
The tariffs are just a means to the end- lower US trade deficits.
The richest country in the world with the highest consumption is innately going to have high trade deficits. It has the wealth to buy more from other countries than consumers in those countries can buy from the US. The whole trade deficit argument is just a narrative to convince simpletons that what trump is doing has logic to it, other than just trying to bully other countries in to falling in line with dumptys demands while bullying manufacturers to build in the USA. The issue with the latter is an iphone built in the US will cost 30k which I'm not sure many americans would be happy with. @@bogdanpanek3481
Reduce big trade deficit? It's only the middle target and i highly doubt it it can be reduced significantly.
Tariffs is just the tool Donald use to "bully" global creditors. He blatantly said many countries will asked for negotiation. And his demand will include a terms that those countries buy US bonds. Added with whatever sum he got from tariffs income + budget cutting, it will be used to reduce US debts.
This year alone, there is usd 9.5 trillion US bonds mature. Some will be paid by "the funds" he got from bullying and most of them will have to be refinance.
His next goal is create a slow down/recession that will force the Fed to cut interest rate. Any decrease in the bond interest rate will help US treasury a lot.
This will depend on how long this increase of yield will continue. If any country can see his "strategic goals" all plans prepared by Trump and his team will fall apart. And his gamble will fail big time.
@@bogdanpanek3481 Wrong. They're going to increase US trade deficits because other countries don't want US products unless there's no alternative. Example, US armaments, other countries, such as Canada and European countries are cancelling their orders for US made military kit and looking to European made kit. Citizens are boycotting US products and services like tourism.
America was importing a lot of goods, but it was exporting a lot of trust. Other countries would 'buy' that trust and invest in America, or buy American government bonds, buy American products because they're backed by America. Not any longer. Wherever possible American products are going to be sourced elsewhere.
The real purpose of import taxes on Americans (aka tariffs) is to extract money from poor people and channel it to rich people. As well as increasing taxes on poor people Trump and the Republicans are going to give big tax cuts to the very richest. That is the ultimate effect of the tariffs, so we can assume that is the real purpose of the tariffs.
@@JohnSmall314 why is trump applying tariffs in the first place? because of the deficits. The deficits will go to as close to zero as possible, even if that means no trade. And no trade= zero deficit. We made all these chachkis here before, and can quickly again. Entire regions of the US have empty factories ready for new machinery to make stuff.
Thanks a lot, Joe. Never heard it explained so clearly!
Joe, You should really consider distributers. They put on huge markups after having imported goods. Typically, a $10 imported good will be sold in shops for $25 (2.5 times multiplied). If they sell at the same profit level, this will now mean a $10 imported good from China will be tariffed to $24.50 and then sold at $39.50. For the consumer, this is "only" a 58% increase. Having said that, I'm sure distributers will also be greedy anyway, and increase their margin. They will doubtless be asking why should just the government profit from these tariffs?
Greedy distributors are increasing our costs while reducing our margin.
They can mark up the prices to whatever they want, but will the consumers keep on buying like no tomorrow?
When recession hits the economy, they will know the answer.
Your math assumes that the shop will be happy with the same profit dollars ($15). However, businesses are often more concerned about profit margin in percentage. So if they use the same 2.5 multiple on their new higher cost in order to maintain their profit margin, the price to the consumer will be $61.25.
@@floydbjorgan6633I can say from direct daily experience that when distributors raise costs to the retailer where I work, maybe half of that can be successfully passed onto the consumer.
Our costs on our most popular products have more than doubled recently, but our margin, as a percentage, is at best two thirds of what it was before, and sometimes half.
Between the distributors and credit card processing fees, our business has never been tighter.
Why does the AI hide my comments about retail?
Thanks for the succinct review!
Haven't heard such a clear reviw since university.
we L❤ve Joe.
Thank you Joe Blogs. Good and educational video as always and I love your statues in the background 👍😀
I really love your way of thinking 100% I listen to it and I taking into consideration to talk to trump about it because your insides are very helpful I have direct access to trump
Yes 🙌 Joe #1
What....
But you can't even spell.
Your lack of English makes us doubt that
Sounds feasible to me. Trump only surrounds himself with people that have no real knowledge or intelligence, because he doesn't feel threatened by them. So any kind of advisor that gets his ideas from RUclips sounds realistic.
Very insightful video.
Audio quality is superp lofi sound design. That flat character of transatlantic phonencalls mid 80ies of last century.
i just started an import export company to work as a middle hand for trade between china and the US. working from Sweden where we have low tariffs
Low margin high risk though. Cash tied up for a long time while these guys play Russian roulette.
I hope you don't tie up too much of your Capital. As soon as Trump can move on to the next thing and not have to take a public loss on this tariff issue, he'll dump it. I think he's figuring out. It's a loser
You still have to declare the origin of the product, being a middle man is not a way to avoid tariffs
So you're committing a legal trade by trying to obscure country of origin requirements. But I'm hearing is one more country to disconnect from.
A quick thinking 👍. But I'm curious about Donnie plan tho. Why it's only an Executive order why he didn't bring it to Congress and make it as a tax bill.
Maybe because he can change it, pause it again, up and down, or maybe even scrap it at all after he make a deal with Xi. It's not good for business planning. How to make a projection in situation like this.
Thanks for explaining the bond market.
The world will not fund American Debit Anymore ..... We have had Enough !!!!
Remember America uses that money it borrows to buy your goods